{"question":"Can the City's published proactive score be rebuilt from the 50 item scores and the published tier weights, and how does the City treat an item scored 0 (refused or obstructed)? Which fixes are worth the most points?","data":"6681 post-2023 evaluations (all clean rows, not only the latest).","constrained_tests":[{"hypothesis":"0 counts as 0 points (weight stays in denominator)","zero_as":"zero","rows":6681,"exact_matches":6666,"exact_share":0.9978,"mae_points":0.0039,"r2":0.9999,"rows_with_a_0":360,"rows_with_a_0_exact_share":0.9944,"rows_with_a_0_mae_points":0.0056,"rows_without_0_exact_share":0.9979},{"hypothesis":"0 is dropped like N/A","zero_as":"missing","rows":6681,"exact_matches":6326,"exact_share":0.9469,"mae_points":0.3283,"r2":0.9038,"rows_with_a_0":360,"rows_with_a_0_exact_share":0.05,"rows_with_a_0_mae_points":6.025,"rows_without_0_exact_share":0.9979}],"constrained_winner":"zero","rounding_rule":"score = round_half_up(round(sum(w_i x s_i / 3) / sum(w_i) x 100, 2)), over items that are not N/A; w = 3 / 2 / 0.5 by tier.","unexplained_rows":{"count":15,"abs_diff_distribution":{"0.1":1,"1.0":7,"2.0":3,"3.0":3,"4.0":1}},"areas_evaluated_counts_zeros":{"rows":6681,"NO_OF_AREAS_EVALUATED_equals_items_not_NA":6681,"NO_OF_AREAS_EVALUATED_equals_items_scored_1_to_3":6321},"unconstrained":{"model":"OLS: score = b0 - sum_i beta_i x (3 - s_i)/3, N/A -> 0 deficit, 0 -> full deficit","split":{"train_rows":5344,"test_rows":1337,"test_from":"2026-06-23","rule":"temporal: earliest 80% of evaluations by completion date train, latest 20% test"},"train_r2":0.9823,"test_r2":0.9802,"test_mae_points":0.7605,"constrained_same_test_rows_mae_points":0.0105,"constrained_same_test_rows_r2":0.9996,"intercept":99.995,"mean_points_per_full_deficit_by_tier":{"High":3.341,"Moderate":2.089,"Cosmetic":0.8},"high_to_cosmetic_ratio_recovered":4.18,"high_to_cosmetic_ratio_recovered_exact":4.177329,"high_to_cosmetic_ratio_published":6.0,"mean_points_per_full_deficit_by_tier_on_formula_scores":{"High":3.343,"Moderate":2.087,"Cosmetic":0.8},"ratio_on_formula_scores":4.18,"ratio_on_formula_scores_exact":4.178005,"ratio_on_formula_scores_note":"The same least-squares fit, same training rows, on the unrounded scores the City's formula gives with the published weights. If it matches the ratio recovered from the published scores, the gap from 6 is the straight-line approximation, not a disagreement with the published weights.","note":"The recovered coefficient is points lost when an item goes from 3 to 0, averaged over denominators; it should be about 100 x w_i / sum(w) (about 3 points for High, 0.5 for Cosmetic)."},"points_per_fix":{"basis":"Latest evaluation per building. Points from raising item i to 3 = w_i x (3 - s_i) / 3 / sum(w over non-N/A items) x 100, the City's own formula. expected_points_per_building averages this over ALL latest buildings (so it already includes the share of buildings affected). Items scored 0 are kept separate as access_points_per_building: points the City formula withholds when an area is refused or obstructed.","buildings":3588,"median_denominator_weight":84.0,"items":[{"item":"Building Exterior","column":"BUILDING EXTERIOR","tier":"High","weight_pct":3.0,"pillar":"envelope","buildings_scored":3576,"avg_score_1_to_3":2.215045,"share_below_3":0.6289,"share_scored_1":0.156,"expected_points_per_building":0.9705,"access_points_per_building":0.0,"refused_buildings":0,"points_1_to_3_at_median_denominator":2.381,"rank":1},{"item":"Stairwell - Landing and Steps","column":"STAIRWELL - LANDING AND STEPS","tier":"High","weight_pct":3.0,"pillar":"stairs","buildings_scored":3584,"avg_score_1_to_3":2.482701,"share_below_3":0.4085,"share_scored_1":0.1088,"expected_points_per_building":0.644,"access_points_per_building":0.0019,"refused_buildings":2,"points_1_to_3_at_median_denominator":2.381,"rank":2},{"item":"Parking Areas","column":"PARKING AREAS","tier":"Moderate","weight_pct":2.0,"pillar":"grounds","buildings_scored":3194,"avg_score_1_to_3":2.158109,"share_below_3":0.6368,"share_scored_1":0.2051,"expected_points_per_building":0.6036,"access_points_per_building":0.002,"refused_buildings":3,"points_1_to_3_at_median_denominator":1.587,"rank":3},{"item":"Exterior Walkways","column":"EXTERIOR WALKWAYS","tier":"High","weight_pct":3.0,"pillar":"grounds","buildings_scored":3555,"avg_score_1_to_3":2.569339,"share_below_3":0.3688,"share_scored_1":0.0619,"expected_points_per_building":0.535,"access_points_per_building":0.0009,"refused_buildings":1,"points_1_to_3_at_median_denominator":2.381,"rank":4},{"item":"Stairwell - Walls and Ceiling","column":"STAIRWELL - WALLS AND CEILING","tier":"Moderate","weight_pct":2.0,"pillar":"stairs","buildings_scored":3577,"avg_score_1_to_3":2.397819,"share_below_3":0.4747,"share_scored_1":0.1275,"expected_points_per_building":0.4901,"access_points_per_building":0.002,"refused_buildings":3,"points_1_to_3_at_median_denominator":1.587,"rank":5},{"item":"Windows","column":"WINDOWS","tier":"High","weight_pct":3.0,"pillar":"envelope","buildings_scored":3585,"avg_score_1_to_3":2.613389,"share_below_3":0.2951,"share_scored_1":0.0915,"expected_points_per_building":0.4833,"access_points_per_building":0.0,"refused_buildings":0,"points_1_to_3_at_median_denominator":2.381,"rank":6},{"item":"Interior Hallway Floors","column":"INTERIOR HALLWAY FLOORS","tier":"Moderate","weight_pct":2.0,"pillar":"interiors","buildings_scored":3571,"avg_score_1_to_3":2.509661,"share_below_3":0.3878,"share_scored_1":0.1025,"expected_points_per_building":0.3964,"access_points_per_building":0.0044,"refused_buildings":6,"points_1_to_3_at_median_denominator":1.587,"rank":7},{"item":"Interior Handrail and Guard - Safety","column":"INT. 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the published tier weights with two treatments of 0, compared with the published PROACTIVE BUILDING SCORE on every clean post-2023 row. Unconstrained: least squares on the 50 item deficits with a temporal train/test split, to see whether the data recover the tier ordering without being told it.","finding_facts":{"best_rule":"0 counts as 0 points (weight stays in denominator)","best_rule_exact_share":0.9978,"best_rule_mae":0.0039,"rows_with_0_exact_share_zero_rule":0.9944,"rows_with_0_exact_share_missing_rule":0.05,"rows_with_0_mae_zero_rule":0.0056,"rows_with_0_mae_missing_rule":6.025},"limits":["The rebuild uses the tier weights published on the City's evaluations page; it cannot see officer notes or re-evaluations, which may explain the unexplained rows.","Points per fix assumes the other items stay the same and that an item can be raised to 3; it is not a cost model.","The unconstrained fit uses item deficits only; the City score is a ratio, so a linear fit is an approximation. The same fit on scores produced by the City's exact formula also gives a high-to-cosmetic ratio of 4.18, so the gap from the published 6 comes from that approximation; the data agree with the published weights. The fit is tested on the most recent 20% of evaluations (from 2026-06-23), not on each building's latest evaluation."],"stage":"stage 2: NorthLedger-cleaned frames (engine 19ec81d19e0d), then this script's domain rules","data_as_of":"2026-09-21","built_at":"2026-09-26T12:43:42Z"}